Welcome to the first edition of Election Watch, an irregular evidence-based look at the coming General Election.

I'll be working on a major new project relating to the election in the next few weeks, details of which to come soon. But in the meantime, I thought it would be fun to do a regular blog of evidence-based tidbits about the elections, looking at the latest data and reflecting on possible outcomes generally, and for science.

Polls are like snow-flakes
The papers have excitedly reported that a Yougov poll this weekend shows the Conservatives sitting just 2 points ahead of Labour, a result which if repeated would leave Labour still the largest party, though without a majority.

In fact, this is misleading. As Anthony at the UK Polling Report points out, recent polls have given the Conservatives a consistent 6 point lead, and this result is within the margin of error for a single poll. It may just be a glitch.

There are rumours that Brown may call the election later today, buoyed by the latest results. But polls are like snowflakes - every one is different. Reacting to one positive anomaly now may lead to momentum-sapping disappointment later, especially if the regression to mean occurs just after an election is announced...

Recent polls

Latest UNS projection: Hung

• Con - 296 (30 short)
• Lab - 276
• Lib - 48
• Oth - 31

The worst leader is...
...Nick Clegg. In the same Yougov poll, 94% of Conservative supporters believe Cameron is doing well, while 83% of Labour voters back Brown. Among the Lib Dem support, only 77% of voters believe Clegg is doing well. Questions would be asked, if only anyone knew who he was. His odds on surviving the summer must be growing slimmer.

Nobody cares about Bullygate!
Even among the Conservative vote, barely more than half agreed that Brown was a bully. Across all voters, the figure is barely a quarter. The media obsession with this story seems to have been out of step with the concerns of ordinary people. Speaking of which...

You don't understand!
Is Cameron too detached? It's no surprise that Labour and Lib Dem voters don't believe that the Eton and Oxford graduate particularly speaks for them, but even among Conservative voters only 59% believed Cameron understood the problems they faced, and only 68% believed that he generally tells the truth.

How much of Cameron's support is based purely on the results he's produced so far? And if the results dry up, how rapidly will the mood turn?

Conservatives against climate change?
Last year I noted that 1 in 4 British MEPs are climate denialists. Mostly though, these are confined to the novelty parties, UKIP and the BNP, with a couple of Conservative exceptions.

There are concerns that a Conservative government could stall action on climate change, but beyond the usual cranks on the right of the party there seems little to suggest deviation from the political consensus that has emerged in Britain on the issue.

The resolve of the shadow cabinet to tackle climate and energy looks likely to be strengthened by an influx of shiny new Cameronite MPs come the election, so are concerns about the Tories and science overstated? I plan to look into this in more detail in coming weeks.

Data, data everywhere
One of the more interesting policy announcements in recent weeks comes from the Conservative party, who are planning to open up government datasets to the public, allowing the creation of 'socially useful applications'. Look forward to a slew of interesting data mash-ups if/when this happens.

Edit: Thanks to D-Notice for pointing out that a similar setup exists data.gov.uk. Still, good to see some cross-party consensus on open data.

Nadine Dorries/Cornerstone:
That Nadine Dorries is a menace when it comes to evidence-based policy-making does not need to be restated. But come the election, Dorries, and the "Cornerstone Group" of MPs she has become a figurehead for, may be in a position of some influence.

A collection of religious social conservative MPs numbering over 30, they may have a good degree of influence over Cameron in the likely event that the election runs close. Their religious views on topics such as embryo research could cause a headache for scientists.

"Broken Britain":
Some time in the mid-2000s, a particularly annoying section of the media began parroting the phrase "Broken Britain." It's a mentality that was epitomized for me by my own Grandfather a few years ago: "I lived through the war, but I'd rather be around then than now." Really?!

Like many slogans, this one doesn't survive the slightest bit scrutiny. As the Economist pointed out recently. Crime has fallen, health has steadily improved, barring the current blip we're richer than ever, living in a less violent society, with lower rates of smoking and alcohol abuse and fewer teen pregnancies. And of course these days we have the internet, and Sky Plus.

And yet the gloomy myth persists; perhaps the finest recent example of the media inventing their own substitute reality, or perhaps an example of how some people just love to be miserable.

More soon (probably weekly). Please send tips on interesting material to layscience@googlemail.com, or to @mjrobbins on Twitter