Blame? That's what myths and ministers are for

In the tropical heat of the Caribbean night there is no electricity for lights, air conditioning or refrigeration. Food rots quickly and the people swelter in the darkness. Is this a scene of survival after a devastating earthquake? No, just another day in Venezuela.

There is an unwelcome opportunity to compare natural and created fractures in society. In Haiti there was a sudden catastrophic destruction of a city of two million people. In Venezuela there is a nationwide rationing of electricity because the hydroelectric dam that provides 70% of the nation's power is running out of water. Both involve nature idly strolling through poor urban or national planning while someone else gets the blame.

Without much effort I have heard three explanations for the earthquake in Haiti. My favorite is that there was motion along a strike-slip fault at a plate boundary. There is the evidence of a fault, ocean trenches and colliding tectonic plates. The second best, because at least there is some physical evidence, is that god is displeased with how the Haitians are behaving and is sending a message. The evidence is that the roof of the cathedral collapsed and killed the local archbishop. While I suspect any bishop sent to Haiti is not a candidate for pope, I feel execution of the poor cleric and many thousands of his flock is excessive for a first warning. The third explanation is that the ancestors of the said murdered flock made a bargain with the devil in exchange for their freedom from France. The earthquake is divine punishment for that ancestral faux pas. There is no evidence for this theory beyond the chemical stew in the brain of an American preacher/politician, Pat Robertson. ( I can't think of a more unsettling combination of careers than preacher/politician whether in Washington D.C. or Tehran.) Yellow fever that ruined entire French armies contributed more to Haitian independence than any diabolic influence.

The Haitian ambassador to the US said that Port-au-Prince was laid out as a city for 12,000 people and it now has over two million. It is reasonable to say this major city could not possibly have known it was going to be shattered by an earthquake exactly last week. It is also reasonable to say scientists had said the fault is there, it had produced large quakes in the 1700's and other quakes were imminent. So in general terms there could have been building codes and emergency plans. But those require good governance and money, both conspicuously lacking in Haiti. It is much easier to blame (insert myth here) than use science to prepare for what must eventually arrive.

In Venezuela the government has established four hour long rolling blackouts through out the country to cope with an electricity shortage. After a few days the blackouts were discontinued in Caracas because they were affecting "the wrong parts of town". Probably where President Chavez lives. Venezuela annually consumes 83 billion kWh of electricity (UK 367 billion, US 4.1 trillion, Russia 958 billion) In the last decade demand has increased 55% while generating capacity increased 25 %. [numbers from the CIA factbook].

Venezuela has an established government and oil money. So why can't they keep the lights on? I have no actual knowledge. It makes sense to me that there was the same level of planning as allowing a city of millions to blossom on a major fault. Things just happen. I am quite sure that an engineer in Venezuela has, at some point, mentioned the flaws inherent in basing the electrical system for the entire country on the rain flowing into a single reservoir. That is just the sort of thing engineers do. (Hydroelectric power produces no carbon dioxide as long as it rains and nothing as long as it doesn't.) Venezuela has the world's eighth largest proven reserve of natural gas. There are "thermoelectric" generating plants that are operating below capacity while "undergoing repairs". Normally gas powered generating plants require about six weeks of scheduled down time for maintenance annually. All the plants are down at once? It seems as if SOMEBODY wasn't paying attention.

That somebody might have been the Venezuelan Minister of Electricity. Venezuela nationalized electricity in 2007. The minister was Angel Rodriguez, until he was fired last week. He had been in the post for three months and still had not rebuilt the national electrical system. When he was fired President Chavez said he "took it like a soldier". That's HOW he took it, we can only guess WHERE he took it. In that regard it is still the same story as Haiti. A natural calamity must have someone who can be blamed; gods, devils or Angels.

Oil money doesn't seem to help. There has to be planning and consideration of the future for civilizations to simply keep being civilized. Earthquakes and failing to pay attention eventually have the same effects.


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